Why is mortality so high in some counties compared to other counties? Is it because of long term care facilities? Population age? Pre-existing conditions? Proximity to big cities? Or is it related to community-level factors, like poverty, race and ethnicity, or community cohesion? A new study led by WRI Faculty Director Sarah Allred and Emily Greenfield, an associate professor of social work at Rutgers University–New Brunswick, will seek to understand these patterns, not just at the county level, but also at the municipality level.
“The data suggests that the disease is spreading in South Jersey. And right now it’s spreading faster in South Jersey than it was in North Jersey,” Sarah Allred, a professor at Rutgers-Camden, said.
On Politics In Focus, a local expert explains findings of his research focusing on “flattening the curve” or slowing the rate of infection of the coronavirus in New Jersey and what it could indicate for neighboring states and the Delaware Valley. Darren Spielman who is the Executive Director of Senator Walter Rand Institute for Public Affairs speaks with Jennifer about his latest findings and their significance.
Dr. Sarah Allred says social distancing is having an effect and appears to be slowly flattening the curve. Allred and her team just launched a new daily tracker that focuses on COVID 19 deaths by county in the state.
“We’re not doing enough testing to really know how many people are infected, which means that we can’t put into the model the number of infected people to know where we are on the curve,” said Sarah Allred, an associate professor at Rutgers University in Camden who is a data and computational researcher.
WRI plots the progress of COVID-19 across counties in New Jersey. The plots, inspired by those at the New York Times, show deaths (y-axis) on a logarithmic scale over time (x-axis). A logarithmic scale shows different growth rates as lines of different steepness.